TECH NEWS • Updated: February 10, 2026
Memory Shortage Worsens: Why RAM and SSD Prices Are Spiking Again in 2026
A new wave of pricing pressure is rolling through the memory market—and it’s being driven less by “random supply issues” and more by structural demand from AI and data centers.
The global memory market is tightening fast—and the latest forecasts suggest the squeeze is getting worse in early 2026. On February 2, 2026, TrendForce sharply upgraded its pricing outlook for the first quarter of 2026, citing persistent AI and data center demand that is worsening the supply–demand imbalance. In the same update, TrendForce revised its expected quarter-over-quarter increase in conventional DRAM contract prices upward from 55–60% to 90–95%. Reuters and The Register, summarizing the same development, describe a market that has swung decisively toward suppliers.
Why this matters: memory isn’t a niche component. DRAM affects everything from laptops and desktops to servers, while NAND flash underpins SSDs and device storage. If contract pricing moves the way forecasters expect, the impact shows up as higher system costs, fewer “easy deals,” and procurement headaches—especially for organizations buying at scale.
Key numbers to know
Memory markets often move in cycles, but what stands out about this moment is the speed of forecast upgrades and the concentration of demand. TrendForce’s February 2 update is notable not because memory prices rising is unheard of, but because the magnitude points to a market that’s running out of slack.
| Metric (Q1 2026) | Latest outlook | What it implies |
|---|---|---|
| Conventional DRAM contract pricing (QoQ) | +90% to +95% | Supplier pricing power; higher bill-of-materials for PCs/servers |
| NAND flash pricing (QoQ) | +55% to +60% (as cited by The Register) | Fewer deep SSD discounts; higher storage costs across devices |
| Data center share of memory consumption (2026) | Up to ~70% (projection) | Reallocation toward AI infra; tightness spills into consumer segments |
Notes: DRAM forecast upgrade is from TrendForce’s Feb 2, 2026 update. NAND figure is reported by The Register in its summary of the same TrendForce outlook. Data center share is a projection reported by Tom’s Hardware (citing broader industry reporting). TrendForce · The Register · Tom’s Hardware
These are contract-market indicators and research forecasts—not retail price tags. But historically, when contract DRAM and NAND pricing runs hot, retail tends to follow with a lag (and with occasional “inventory noise” where sellers temporarily discount older stock). The practical result is that buyers experience volatility: a good deal can still appear, but the baseline price trend rises.
What’s driving the shortage
1) AI + data centers are soaking up supply
The most consistent explanation across sources is simple: demand from AI and data centers hasn’t just increased—it has become the dominant force in the memory ecosystem. TrendForce explicitly attributes its forecast upgrade to persistent AI and data center demand that further worsens the global supply–demand imbalance, increasing suppliers’ pricing power. TrendForce and Reuters present this as the main catalyst behind the 90–95% DRAM outlook.
A useful way to think about it: consumer markets (PCs, phones) used to “set the tempo” for memory demand. Now, large-scale data center builds can pull huge volumes consistently, month after month, because AI workloads depend on memory capacity and bandwidth at every layer: training clusters, inference fleets, storage tiers, caching, and networking buffers. Even if consumer demand is flat, data center demand can keep the market tight.
2) Memory makers are rationalizing capacity
When memory prices weaken, manufacturers typically cut output, delay expansions, or shift product mix to protect margins. That behavior is “normal cycle management.” The catch is that when demand rebounds quickly—especially from a structurally growing segment like AI—those prior cuts translate into a tighter market than buyers expected. In that scenario, even a modest surprise (like stronger-than-expected PC shipments, which The Register notes as an added pressure factor) can amplify tightness. The Register
3) “Everything uses memory,” so pressure spreads fast
Memory isn’t like a specialized chip that only affects a niche product line. DRAM is universal compute infrastructure, and NAND flash is universal storage. That’s why a memory squeeze shows up as a broad price headwind for electronics: fewer promotions, smaller capacities at the same price, or higher prices for the same specs.
And the ripple can go beyond memory itself. For example, recent reporting notes supply stress in adjacent server components and longer lead times, with AI-driven infrastructure demand acting as the underlying accelerant. Reuters (MediaTek, Feb 4, 2026) discusses broader supply chain strain from AI demand.
Implications: who gets hit, and how
Not everyone experiences a memory crunch the same way. The impact depends on whether you’re a retail buyer, an OEM, or an organization purchasing systems and spares at scale. But the direction is consistent: when DRAM and NAND contract prices rise sharply, the cost pressure flows through the value chain.
PC builders and gamers: fewer “easy wins”
If you build PCs (or upgrade them), you’ll likely see the effect in two places: (1) RAM kits that stop falling in price and begin stepping upward, and (2) SSD deals that become less frequent or less aggressive. Even if you can still find discounts, the “floor” price tends to rise.
Practical expectation-setting: in tight markets, retailers often clear older inventory at decent prices while new stock arrives at higher prices. So shoppers can see mixed signals—one SKU on sale, another SKU suddenly expensive. That isn’t “random”; it’s what happens when inventory layers are being repriced.
Schools, offices, and IT buyers: budgets get squeezed
For institutions—schools, LGUs, offices, or any team managing fleets—memory spikes are especially painful because they arrive as an unplanned budget variable. You can often delay a monitor refresh. You can sometimes stretch CPU cycles. But when you need RAM to keep systems usable (or SSDs to keep devices responsive), the decision becomes operational rather than “nice to have.”
Here’s what tends to break first in constrained memory markets:
- Planned upgrades (adding RAM to extend old PCs) become less cost-effective if RAM pricing spikes faster than expected.
- Standardization efforts become harder if certain capacities are intermittently unavailable or priced oddly.
- Procurement timing becomes a strategy: buying earlier can beat later contract resets, but buying too early risks sitting on stock.
If you’re purchasing for labs or offices, the most resilient approach is to lock a small set of “approved” configurations and buy in batches, rather than one-off purchasing that forces you to accept whatever is cheapest on a random day. In memory squeezes, variability is the enemy.
Big Tech and the “capex illusion”
One of the more interesting angles comes from an RBC Capital Markets note reported by Business Insider: it argues that a large portion of Big Tech’s apparent 2026 capex surge may reflect memory price inflation rather than proportional increases in hardware quantities. In other words, companies can spend dramatically more and still end up with fewer “extra” systems than headlines imply, because memory is acting like a cost multiplier. Business Insider (Feb 2026)
This matters because it suggests memory tightness isn’t just a consumer annoyance—it’s a macro constraint on AI deployment economics. When memory becomes the limiting factor, it shapes how quickly new compute can be brought online, how expensive inference becomes, and how aggressively companies can scale.
What to watch next (Q1–Q2 2026)
Forecasts are not guarantees, but they do signal where negotiating leverage sits—and TrendForce’s upgrade is a clear signal that suppliers currently hold pricing power. Here are the most practical indicators to watch over the next several weeks:
Contract pricing updates
Contract price changes tend to ripple into system costs. If quarterly contract pricing rises at the top end of the forecast, expect OEM and retail pricing pressure to persist.
Reference: TrendForce
Data center build tempo
AI infrastructure demand is the load-bearing driver. If data center demand stays high, it limits how quickly consumer segments get relief.
Reference: Reuters
Retail “floor price” behavior
Even when discounts appear, watch whether the lowest typical price for mainstream RAM/SSDs is creeping upward week to week. That’s often the earliest consumer-facing signal.
Tip: track 2–3 staple SKUs you trust.
Also keep an eye on broader semiconductor supply-chain commentary. A recent Reuters report on MediaTek flags a supply chain crunch from AI demand and notes that the company plans to adjust prices in response. While it’s not a “memory-only” story, it’s consistent with the theme that AI demand is tightening multiple links in the chain. Reuters (Feb 4, 2026)
Buyer playbook (practical, not hype)
This final section is guidance—separate from the reported forecasts. The goal is to reduce regret in a volatile pricing window. You don’t need to “panic buy,” but you do want to stop assuming memory will always get cheaper over time.
If you’re upgrading a PC soon
- Buy when your target SKU hits a credible sale, rather than waiting for a “perfect” price that may not return quickly.
- Prioritize proven, widely available parts. In tight markets, unusual SKUs can become overpriced or scarce overnight.
- Don’t overpay for tiny performance deltas. For most users, capacity (enough RAM, enough SSD space) matters more than peak specs.
If you manage school/office devices
- Standardize a small menu of approved configurations (e.g., two RAM capacities, two SSD capacities) to keep substitutions manageable.
- Buy in batches for predictable pricing and compatibility, instead of piecemeal buys that force you into “whatever is available.”
- Extend lifecycles strategically: prioritize RAM/SSD upgrades for the machines that are still mechanically sound and most used.
- Keep spares for high-failure points (SSDs, RAM sticks) so a single failure doesn’t become a procurement emergency.
What not to do
- Don’t chase unknown brands purely on price in a tight market—RMA and failure rates can erase any savings.
- Don’t rely on “one big purchase” timing unless you have confirmed budget windows and supplier availability.
- Don’t treat forecasts as certainty. Use them to plan and hedge, not to bet the house.